Northern Ireland business leaders remain committed to growth and innovation, but their outlook is shaped by a more cautious economic context compared to peers in the Republic of Ireland and globally.
80 percent of NI CEOs expect earnings to rise over the next three years (up from 70 percent in 2024). This is ahead of the ROI figure of 57 percent and broadly in line with global optimism. However, confidence in the wider economy is more muted.
Confidence and Growth Outlook
Northern Ireland CEOs balance optimism for their own businesses with caution about the wider economic climate. While 80 percent expect earnings growth, modest GDP forecasts (1.0 percent in 2025) underline structural fragility. Headcount growth intentions are strong but slightly lower than ROI, reflecting the pressures of wage costs, restrictive monetary policy, and inflation that remains above target.
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Johnny Hanna, Partner in Charge at KPMG in Northern Ireland, said: “We’re seeing cautious optimism. CEOs are committed to AI adoption, enhanced cybersecurity, and sustainability investment that makes business sense. However, the backdrop of modest growth, elevated costs, and wage pressures are pushing business leaders to think carefully about where their priorities should lie.”
AI and Technology at the Forefront
AI is the clear strategic priority for NI leaders, with 80 percent ranking it as essential — substantially higher than ROI (63 percent) and above the global average (71 percent). However, fewer NI leaders (32 percent) expect to allocate 10–20 percent of budgets to AI over the next year, compared with 43 percent in ROI and 69 percent globally.
Confidence levels around AI are lower in Northern Ireland with 51 percent believing they can keep pace with AI’s rapid development, versus 60 percent in ROI and 74 percent globally. Still, optimism is strong, with nine in ten NI CEOs (92 percent) agreeing AI will deliver competitive advantage, mirroring international sentiment.
Risk and Resilience
Cybercrime is a critical concern for 77 percent of NI CEOs, with investment in digital risk resilience (46 percent) well above ROI (23 percent). Supply chain resilience (29 percent) and climate risk (43 percent) also rank high. By contrast, global CEOs are more focused on geopolitical volatility and talent shortages.
Johnny Hanna said: “The risks are increasingly interconnected. NI CEOs are right to prioritise cyber resilience, but they must also ensure they don’t underinvest in the broader supply chain to protect against heightened geopolitical risks.”
Sustainability Under Pressure but Rising on the Agenda
Globally, 61 percent of CEOs say they are on track for net-zero, up from 51 percent last year. In Northern Ireland confidence on reaching net zero is weaker at 34 percent (29 percent in ROI). NI CEOs cite decarbonisation cost concerns as the greatest barrier to achieving net zero (23 percent) than either their global peers (11 percent) or those in ROI (6 percent).
In Northern Ireland 37 percent of CEOs report directing resources towards climate and sustainability initiatives, making it one of the top 3 areas of risk mitigation spend.
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A strong majority of NI CEOs (74 percent) believe AI is instrumental in reducing emissions and enhancing energy efficiency and 77 percent also recognise AI’s value in enhancing risk modelling.
Russell Smyth, Head of Sustainable Futures at KPMG, said: “Northern Ireland businesses are taking tangible steps towards sustainability and adopting the latest technology to get them there. AI can play a critical role in improving energy efficiency and reporting quality — provided investment is aligned with renewable energy integration.”
Leadership Under Pressure
The role of CEO is evolving rapidly. 74 percent of NI CEOs say they feel under greater pressure than before to deliver long-term prosperity, an outlook shared with 80 percent of global leaders. Over half (54 percent) of NI CEOs report their roles have changed significantly in recent years, with an emphasis on leading transformation and driving cultural change. This contrasts with ROI leaders, who prioritise the ability to identify, prioritise and manage risks.
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