Europe is recalibrating its strategy in the global shift to electric vehicles (EVs), with China streaking ahead while the US is facing significant headwinds, according to the latest EY Mobility Lens Forecaster. This AI-powered model projects light duty vehicle* sales through 2050 across the three largest markets globally, Europe, China and the US.
Across these three markets, battery electric vehicle (BEV) sales are expected to exceed 50% by 2034, marking a pivotal moment. Hybrids and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) are forecast to maintain a c.30% share through 2036, underscoring their role as a key bridge to full electrification.
However, the pace of the change across the three markets varies significantly, with China expected to achieve a 50% share of new energy vehicles* (NEV) sold in 2025. Europe’s EV sales are forecast to surpass petrol and diesel by 2028, before crossing 50% by 2032 under tightening emissions rules. In contrast, the US is now projected to reach 50% EV adoption by 2039 (a five-year delay from previous projections) amid policy delays, high costs, and charging gaps.
Ireland’s EV market continues to evolve with hybrid vehicles playing an increasingly important role in bridging the gap for many consumers while infrastructure expands to support wider EV adoption. The latest Central Statistics Office (CSO) data shows a strong rebound in EV uptake in 2025, with new electric vehicle registrations rising by 64% in July of this year compared to the same month in 2024, and a 27% increase in the first half of the year. Hybrid and plug-in hybrid also saw a 110% year-on-year increase in June, highlighting their role in maintaining momentum. According to the Society of the Irish Motor Industry (SIMI), this upward trend continued into August, with battery electric vehicle registrations accelerating by nearly 70% year-on-year, reinforcing the strength of Ireland’s EV recovery.
This recovery follows a temporary slowdown in 2024. However, targeted government support, including tiered grants, toll discounts and fleet electrification schemes, are helping to address some well documented challenges. Ireland’s EV transition strategy has been supported by Government grant schemes which have sought to accelerate the availability of EV Charging Infrastructure – grant schemes administered by Transport Infrastructure Ireland are supporting the rollout of 131 high-powered chargers across 17 roadside locations and 175 fast and ultra-fast chargers across 53 hubs by the end of 2025.
Julia Ann Corkery, EY Ireland Partner and Transport Leader, says: “Globally, the EV transition is advancing, but unevenly. China benefits from stable policy and a robust EV ecosystem. Europe is on a steady path under strict emissions targets, however, the pace of adoption will be slower than was previously anticipated, with hybrid technologies playing an increasingly important role in bridging the gap to full electrification in the short to medium term. The US meanwhile faces policy uncertainty, high costs and infrastructure gaps.
Electric vehicles are central to Ireland’s transport decarbonisation strategy and it’s encouraging to see strong momentum reflected in the CSO and SIMI data from 2025, as well as the broader trends across Europe. The rise in EV registrations, alongside shifting consumer preferences and the rollout of additional charging infrastructure, signals a dynamic market which is beginning to mature. As battery electric vehicle adoption accelerates towards 2032, Ireland is well-positioned to benefit, particularly as infrastructure and affordability measures continue to evolve to support wider uptake. In the interim period hybrid vehicles will be expected to play a central role in bridging the gap on the transition to zero emissions vehicles.”
Europe: Rebounding after 2027
The EY Forecaster suggests that in Europe, economic pressures, reduced incentives, and softer emissions penalties will dampen BEV growth through 2027. But stricter CO₂ limits and more affordable models are expected to drive a rebound, with BEVs surpassing 50% market share by 2032. Until then, hybrids including PHEVs will remain a cost-effective alternative, outselling BEVs until 2030.
Europe’s EV transition is being shaped by a mix of policy and infrastructure developments. Gigafactory expansions and EU policies, such as ETS2 and the Critical Raw Materials Act (CRMA), are expected to improve supply chains and enhance access for mid- to low-income buyers through leasing and targeted subsidies. Despite softened emissions penalties through 2027, policy targets, a rebound in demand and affordable models are expected to drive EV uptake. However, regional disparities and infrastructure gaps remain.
Breakthroughs in battery technology, including solid-state and sodium-ion batteries, advancements in circular economy, and reductions in the total cost of ownership, are expected to drive BEV dominance in Europe, with market share projected to exceed 95% by 2041.
China: Full speed ahead
The EY Forecaster projects BEVs will make up over 50% of China’s light vehicle sales by 2033, driven by lower costs and supportive policies like the new VII vehicle emission standards. NEVs (BEVs + PHEVs) are expected to hit 50% by 2025 and surge past 90% by 2034.
Even as China’s share of global BEV sales dips from 70% today to 54% by 2050, it will remain a dominant force in global EV growth.
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US: Slowed by policy and cost
The EY Forecaster predicts a short-term spike in US EV sales is expected in 2025 as buyers rush to claim tax credits before they expire in September. But with incentives ending, new import tariffs, and legislative uncertainty, including the potential impact of “the One Big Beautiful Bill”, growth is likely to slow.
As a result, the US is now projected to reach 50% BEV adoption by 2039, five years later than previously forecast. Hybrids will remain a key option, peaking at 34% of sales by 2034.
Corkery concluded: “Globally, the near- to mid-term future will feature a diverse mix of powertrains, shaped by regulatory shifts, tariffs, and evolving consumer behaviour. What’s clear is that e-mobility will remain central to the future of transport.”
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