Brexit uncertainty has made Northern Ireland the only UK region where firms expect output to be lower in 12 months’ time, according to a new report from Ulster Bank.
Output, new orders and employment all fell at sharper rates, while business sentiment dropped to a new record low.
Export orders at local firms fell to a 97-month low, which “underscores that this is not just a Northern Ireland problem, and that global demand is weakening”, according to Richard Ramsey, Ulster Bank’s Chief Economist.
He continued: “It is the seventh consecutive month that private sector output has fallen here, and the fifth month that all sectors have been in decline.”
The construction industry has seen the fastest rates of decline in output, and new orders in the sector are now at an 82-month low.
The manufacturing sector also reported its fastest pace of job losses in over 10 years.
The largest sector, services, had a particularly difficult month in September with output and orders hitting 81-month lows.
New business from abroad declined to the greatest extent in just over eight years and business confidence slumped to the lowest since data on sentiment were added to the Ulster Bank survey in March 2017.
Given the drop off in new orders, companies in Northern Ireland were able to work through backlogs of work again in September. Meanwhile, companies continued to scale back employment levels given declining workloads.
Panellists reported that workforce numbers had been lowered as there were fewer replacements of those leaving firms. The rate of job cuts was solid and the fastest since April.
Sterling weakness and higher staff costs were the main factors leading input prices to rise in September. The rate of inflation eased from that seen in August, but remained marked. The pace at which firms in Northern Ireland raised their own selling prices was unchanged in September.
