Northern Ireland economy expecting modest growth in 2019

  • A forecast by Danske Bank has highlighted that the economy grew by 1.1% in 2018 and is set to grow by a further 1.2% in 2019. This statistic is revised upward from the Bank’s previous forecasts of 1% and 1.1% respectively.

    Danske Bank has stated in the latest Quarterly Sectoral Forecast report that 2018 was a year of "modest" growth, with only a slight increase predicted in 2019. The sectors highlighted as the most likely to grow include administrative and support services, professional services, scientific and technical services, and information and communication services.

    Growth within the manufacturing sector has been revised upwards, forecasted at 1.1 percent in 2018 with continued strong performance within the sector. Output and overall productivity increased by 2.5% over the quarter to 2018 Q3. The public administration and defence sector are looking weaker with output expected to contract by 0.8% in 2018 and by a further 0.9% in 2019.

    The Northern Ireland economy has continued to benefit from strong job growth with an estimation that employment growth will reach 1.9% for the whole of 2018.  In 2019, job growth is, however, set to slip to 0.5% as momentum begins due to firms having to refocus on improving productivity and minimal spare capacity left in the labour market.

    Brexit and politics remain the key factors that underpin the biggest risks to economic growth in NI, according to Danske Bank's Chief Economist Conor Lambe: "Despite being less than three months away from the date upon which the UK is scheduled to leave the EU, there is still a large degree of uncertainty regarding the final Brexit outcome."

    SOURCE: Danske Press Release

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